analysis: Bitcoin Drops Below 200-Week Moving Average, Potentially Forming a Historic Buy Point with Median Returns Exceeding 100%

Odaily Planet Daily News Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo pointed out that Bitcoin has briefly fallen below the 200-week moving average twice in the past two weeks, but quickly rebounded and regained that level each time. Currently, the BTC price is approximately $63,900, slightly above the 200-week moving average of around $62,358. Analysis suggests that when Bitcoin drops below its 200-week simple moving average (200-week SMA), it has historically offered significant long-term buying opportunities, with past data showing a median return of over 100% in this range.

Thomas Perfumo stated that since 2017, trading days with a closing price below this moving average account for only about 10% of the total, but these moments typically correspond to "unusually attractive" long-term entry points. Buying BTC near this level has yielded a median return of approximately 113% in the following year and 313% in the following two years. Additionally, investors usually do not have to endure long-term unrealized losses, with a median time to break even of only about 2 days, and the subsequent one-year maximum drawdown median is around 9%.

However, Thomas Perfumo also emphasized that historical performance does not guarantee future results, but historical data indicates that Bitcoin tends to have high long-term value in this price range. (CoinDesk)