World Cup Drives Record-High Prediction Market Trading Volume, Bernstein Says Robinhood May Benefit

Odaily Planet Daily News Bernstein stated that as prediction market trading volume hits record highs during the World Cup, Robinhood is poised for a "strong tailwind."

Data shows that during the early stages of the FIFA World Cup, daily trading volume in the prediction market surged from $2.2 billion on June 11 to $4.8 billion on June 12, setting a new all-time high and surpassing the $1.4 billion traded during the previous Super Bowl.

Analysts noted that since its launch, the prediction market has become one of Robinhood's fastest-growing revenue streams. The firm expects Robinhood's prediction market revenue to grow from $150 million in 2025 to $586 million in 2026, representing a year-over-year increase of approximately 286%. This is projected to account for 17% of trading-related revenue and 10% of total revenue in 2026.

Bernstein believes that Robinhood's partnership with Rothera, an exchange and clearing agency regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), is one of its competitive advantages. Since its launch on May 28, Rothera has traded approximately 200 million contracts in 18 days, with FIFA World Cup and MLB-related contracts contributing nearly all of the trading volume. Analysts stated that Robinhood's core strength lies in its distribution capabilities, with its large user base, a commission of $0.01 per contract, and fee discounts of up to 50% for Gold members, all of which help drive user participation.

Additionally, Bernstein noted that competition in the prediction market space is expanding, including Polymarket launching contracts on private company events and Kalshi introducing cryptocurrency perpetual contracts. The firm expects the World Cup to bring over $3 billion in new betting volume to the prediction market and boost overall consumer trading volume in the industry by $5 billion to $10 billion. (The Block)