Viewpoint: $70,000 is the Watershed for this Round of Bitcoin Options Market

According to a post on platform X by Adam, a macro researcher at Greeks.live, the Deribit BTC index hit a low of $70,992 today, approaching the key psychological level of $70,000. This level is not only a psychological support but also a dense area for options positions.

Options data shows that the near-term ATM IV is around 30%, and volatility has not seen extreme panic buying. The market is currently not pricing in a unilateral decline, but rather appears to be waiting for a directional choice. Before last month's expiration, the GEX dense area was around $72,000. After expiration, the $70,000 strike price has become the new GEX dense area, with positions clearly concentrated there. Below this level, put option IV is significantly more expensive, and the Skew is declining overall, indicating the market is paying a higher premium for downside tail risk. The call option wall above is concentrated at $80,000, $90,000, and $100,000, with long-term call positions still relatively thick. The mid-to-long-term bullish structure remains intact, but in the short term, the $70,000 level must be defended. If the $70,000 level is effectively defended, a short-term decline in IV and spot price recovery could occur. If it breaks down with high volume, demand for protective puts could push up short-end IV, and the price may test the $68,000 to $65,000 range.