Analysis: Bitcoin's rebound does not confirm a bull market start; on-chain structure still lacks bottom signals

Odaily Planet Daily reports that crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that although Bitcoin has rebounded after falling from around $125,000 to $60,000, the current trend still belongs to a "post-decline recovery" and has not yet been confirmed to have entered a new bull market cycle.

He pointed out that from an on-chain data perspective, several key indicators have not yet entered the corresponding range of historical bear market bottoms, including the "Loss Supply Ratio" and the 90-day UTXO-related indicators, which still do not show a sufficient cyclical bottom structure. Meanwhile, the "Long-Term Holder Realized Supply" has also not exhibited the typical accumulation pattern seen at the end of a bear market, indicating that the market has not yet entered a deep reallocation phase.

Additionally, the spot selling pressure indicator has not shown obvious "capitulation selling," meaning that a typical comprehensive market clearance has not occurred during this decline. Axel Adler Jr. believes that before the on-chain structure, spot demand, and supply pressure improve simultaneously, this current rise is more likely a technical rebound rather than a trend reversal.

On a macro level, he pointed out that the global risk environment remains tight. The conflict between the US and Iran has pushed Brent crude oil close to $100 per barrel, leading to a resurgence of inflationary pressure; consumer confidence and financial health indices are weakening, indicating pressure on the demand side. At the same time, US Treasury yields remain high, and both real interest rates and inflation expectations are rising simultaneously, further suppressing risk asset valuations.

He also mentioned that the leadership of the US Federal Reserve is about to enter a potential transition phase, but the interest rate market is no longer pricing in rapid rate cuts, and has even started to factor in the probability of rate hikes, with market expectations clearly shifting towards "higher rates for longer." In an environment of high oil prices, high interest rates, and uncertain monetary policy, overall financial conditions remain tight.

Axel Adler Jr. stated that the current market needs to wait for clearer on-chain bottom structures and demand-side recovery signals. Before that, he remains cautious about the market outlook.