Prediction market trading volume exceeded $25.7 billion in March, retail investors drive growth, crypto becomes primary entry point

Odaily Planet Daily reported that data shows the total trading volume of prediction markets in March 2026 reached $25.7 billion, a month-over-month increase of 10.6%, with trading activities highly concentrated among small retail investors. Among the 1.29 million wallets tracked in the first quarter, 82.3% of users had a trading volume of less than $10,000. Growth was primarily driven by micro, light, and moderately active user groups, with the market overall exhibiting a structural characteristic of "high-frequency participation and low per-trade value."

Cryptocurrency assets serve as the main entry point for prediction markets, accounting for 39.6% of micro-user activity. Among these, Bitcoin-related event contracts attracted approximately 593,000 users in the first quarter, with a trading volume of $5.42 billion, making it the most actively participated crypto prediction market; Ethereum and Solana recorded trading volumes of $1.19 billion and $420 million, respectively.

By category structure, sports markets ranked first with a trading volume of $10.1 billion, followed by political markets ($5 billion), of which geopolitical-related events accounted for $2.41 billion. The overall trading volume of crypto-related markets reached $7.3 billion.

Analysts suggest that the growth of prediction markets primarily relies on "category expansion" rather than an increase in per-trade size. Micro users were active for an average of 2.5 days and participated in 1.45 categories, while medium users' activity increased to 9.9 days and participation in 2.34 categories, indicating that users are shifting from single-speculation to sustained multi-market participation. (The Block)