Analysis: Bitcoin "Quantum Threat" Controllable, Potential $145 Billion Sell-off Not a Systemic Risk

Odaily Planet Daily News The discussion about quantum computing potentially threatening Bitcoin's security has heated up again. Analyst James Check points out that while quantum computing could theoretically crack elliptic curve signatures, its market impact may be overestimated.

Data shows that approximately 1.7 million BTC (about $145 billion) are stored in early "Satoshi-era" addresses. If the private keys were cracked, it could create potential selling pressure. However, from a market liquidity perspective, this scale is not unmanageable: in a bull market, long-term holders typically sell an average of 10,000 to 30,000 BTC per day, meaning the aforementioned scale is equivalent to 2 to 3 months of routine profit-taking.

Additionally, the average monthly inflow to exchanges is about 850,000 BTC, and the notional trading volume in the derivatives market can cover this amount within a few days. Historical data shows that during the most recent bear market, over 2.3 million BTC changed hands in a single quarter, far exceeding the potential "quantum risk" scale, yet this did not trigger a systemic collapse.

The analysis suggests that even if a concentrated release occurs, it is more likely to bring about phased volatility rather than a structural shock. At the same time, entities with the ability to acquire such assets are more likely to adopt batch selling and hedging strategies to reduce market impact.

Overall, the core issue of the "quantum threat" may not lie in the selling pressure itself, but in the governance response, such as whether to restrict the flow of assets from relevant addresses through protocol upgrades. (CoinDesk)