Analysis: Bitcoin Rises with U.S. Stocks, but Options Market Still Bets on Downside Risks

Odaily News Bitcoin rose to around $74,935 during Asian trading hours, up 0.7% in the past 24 hours and 5.4% for the week. However, the derivatives market is sending different signals. Institutional firm QCP Capital pointed out that this rally is primarily driven by spot buying, not a broad recovery in risk appetite. Currently, Bitcoin perpetual futures funding rates remain negative, and open interest is declining, indicating that shorts are still increasing their hedging positions rather than being forced to liquidate.

The options market also leans towards caution: short-term implied volatility is low, with the one-month tenor lower than the three-month. Furthermore, risk reversal indicators show that market demand for downside protection exceeds that for upside bets, suggesting traders are more willing to pay for potential declines rather than chasing gains. QCP believes this looks more like a "rebound" than a trend reversal.

On the macro front, long-term U.S. Treasury yields and gold price movements have not confirmed a recovery in risk appetite. Gold remains near its highs, indicating persistent safe-haven demand. Institutions note that the current market action is more of an "emotional repair" driven by ceasefire expectations, rather than a resolution of core risks.

Additionally, Ethereum has shown relative strength, with the ETH/BTC ratio recovering to around 0.0315. Coupled with on-chain transaction volume and stablecoin supply reaching all-time highs, this suggests signs of capital rotation into higher-beta assets. However, the market still needs to observe the evolution of subsequent risk events to confirm the sustainability of this rally. (CoinDesk)