Analysts Warn of Tariff Lag Effect, Long-Term U.S. Bond Yields Prone to Rise but Hard to Fall

According to the latest report from BayernLB analysts, inflationary factors may keep U.S. long-term Treasury yields elevated in 2026. The report points out that 2025's situation is clearly better than expected: positive surprises have overshadowed negative factors due to the milder-than-anticipated inflationary boost from U.S. tariff policies. However, analysts believe this lag effect will manifest in 2026, at which point the surprise factor in inflation data may no longer be present. (Jin10)