Bitcoin历轮回撤幅度收窄，周期低点涨幅同步下降

The Odaily Planet Daily reports that Bitcoin’s market has repeatedly seen the narrative of "this time is different" over the past 18 years, yet the cyclical structure has largely persisted. In 2014, 2017, 2020–2021, and 2024–2025, BTC’s maximum drawdowns were approximately 85%, 84%, 77%, and 53%, respectively, showing a gradual narrowing trend.

Alex Thorn, Head of Firmwide Research at Galaxy Digital, released a chart stating that this cycle’s BTC drawdown is significantly smaller than those of previous cycles. Analyst Willy Woo noted that as the supply shock from halvings diminishes, Bitcoin may be transitioning from a four-year cycle to a six-to-eight-year cycle, although this assessment cannot yet be confirmed.

In previous cycles, the gains from cycle lows to subsequent all-time highs were approximately 580x, 130x, 22x, and 8x, respectively. Analyst James Check pointed out that Bitcoin’s price floor has shifted higher each cycle, while its ceiling has remained relatively stable; Jesse Myers stated that BTC may have just entered a bull market lasting two to three years. (Bitcoin.com News)