Prediction markets price roughly 74% probability that the Fed holds rates steady in September
2026-08-17 21:27
Odaily News – Multiple prediction markets are converging on their pricing for the Fed's September meeting outcome: roughly 74% probability of holding rates steady, about 25% probability of a 25 basis point hike, and nearly 1% probability of a cut.
Polymarket's related contract has seen trading volume of $33.9 million; Kalshi, an exchange regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), shows a 73.5% probability of holding steady, with betting amounts nearing $10 million. Myriad, a prediction platform operated by Dastan, shows roughly 71% probability for that option.
The Fed's July meeting voted 9 to 3 to hold rates at 3.50% to 3.75%, with three members voting in favor of a hike. The FOMC is scheduled to meet on September 15-16, with the statement planned for release on September 16; a survey shows nearly 70% of economists expect rates to remain unchanged for the rest of 2026. (Decrypt)
Polymarket's related contract has seen trading volume of $33.9 million; Kalshi, an exchange regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), shows a 73.5% probability of holding steady, with betting amounts nearing $10 million. Myriad, a prediction platform operated by Dastan, shows roughly 71% probability for that option.
The Fed's July meeting voted 9 to 3 to hold rates at 3.50% to 3.75%, with three members voting in favor of a hike. The FOMC is scheduled to meet on September 15-16, with the statement planned for release on September 16; a survey shows nearly 70% of economists expect rates to remain unchanged for the rest of 2026. (Decrypt)
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