Glassnode: Bitcoin enters late-stage bear market compression phase, real demand signals have yet to emerge

Odaily News – Glassnode stated that Bitcoin is currently trading between a median realized price of approximately $63,000 and a short-term holder cost basis of approximately $68,700. Spot trading volume has dropped to its lowest level since 2019, with the market in an extremely quiet state of compression. Core inflation fell back to 2.5% in July and stock markets hit new highs, yet Bitcoin showed almost no reaction or even weakened, indicating a clear absence of demand. Selling pressure is diminishing, profitable supply is approaching levels seen at the bottom of past bear markets, the seller exhaustion indicator has hit cycle lows, and the adjusted SOPR has been rejected near the breakeven line nine times.

Meanwhile, buyers remain absent, ETF net inflows are extremely small, and Bitcoin is still flowing into exchanges. Derivatives leverage has already been heavily skewed long in advance, open interest is relatively high compared to trading volume, and order book bid depth is thinning. Glassnode believes the key levels to watch are approximately $68,700 on the upside and approximately $58,500 on the downside. A decisive break above the former, accompanied by a recovery in trading volume and ETF inflows, would confirm an improvement in the market; if the latter is lost, accelerated downside could occur given thin buying and crowded long positioning. Glassnode stated that Bitcoin is currently in the late-stage bear market compression phase, and true demand signals have yet to appear.