"Fed Whisperer": The July FOMC meeting has become the hardest to predict in recent years

According to Odaily, "Fed Whisperer" Nick Timiraos wrote on July 23 local time that the Fed's July policy meeting is set to be the most unpredictable in recent years. Rising oil prices, escalating risks from US tariff policies, and some officials shifting toward supporting rate hikes have challenged the consensus to keep rates unchanged.

The market widely expects the Fed to maintain its policy rate at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on July 28-29, keeping the current rate range at 3.50% to 3.75%. However, the meeting outcome does not signify an end to internal debates, as some officials have already begun paving the way for further rate hikes this year.

During previous meetings, 18 Fed officials showed clear divisions on whether rate hikes are needed this year, with half expecting hikes and the other half seeing no need for adjustments. Jonathan Pingle, Chief US Economist at UBS, stated that Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh may become a key figure in determining the policy direction.