"White-Haired Stock Guru" Serenity: Continuous Wave Lasers May Become Core Bottleneck for AI Optical Interconnects, Related Targets Hold Strategic Value

Odaily reports that "White-Haired Stock Guru" Serenity posted on platform X, stating his belief that the "photonics theme + continuous wave (CW) laser bottleneck" is currently one of the most important investment directions in the AI infrastructure field.

Serenity pointed out that the market seems to have overlooked the process by which Lumentum's (LITE) market cap grew from approximately $3 billion to over $65 billion since 2024. The core reasons behind this are the EML laser supply bottleneck driven by NVIDIA and changes in optical network architecture.

He believes the current market is experiencing a similar logic, where CW lasers, 1.6T optical modules, and CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) architecture have become the focus of the new round of industrial upgrades. As NVIDIA continues to sign long-term supply agreements, AMD and other cloud service providers are competing for supply chain resources related to CW lasers and optical components.

Serenity cited Goldman Sachs research, stating that the total addressable market (TAM) for the optical communication market could grow to $154 billion by 2028, while the CPO market size is expected to grow from near zero to $91 billion within the next two and a half years.

He stated that companies including Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI), SIVE, and other CW laser-related enterprises all hold strategic value, and believes the market may once again repeat the investment opportunities brought by the EML laser supply shortage. He is currently focusing on targets like SOI, Tower Semiconductor (TSEM), and SIVE within the CW laser supply chain.