Options market pricing suggests about 40% probability of SpaceX surpassing Nvidia to become the "world's largest" by the end of 2028

After debuting on Nasdaq with a valuation of approximately $2.6 trillion, SpaceX quickly became the world's fifth-largest publicly traded company and is competing with Amazon for a higher market cap ranking. However, options market pricing indicates that it will still take a significant amount of time for SpaceX to climb to an even higher market cap tier.

For SpaceX to surpass Apple and Alphabet (both with market caps exceeding $4.4 trillion) and rank second globally, its stock price would need to rise about 70% from current levels to $340. Options market pricing suggests about a 50% probability of SpaceX reaching that price by July 2028.

If SpaceX aims for the "world's largest" title, surpassing Nvidia in market cap, options market estimates put the probability at about 38% by June 2028, and approximately 41% by the end of 2028.

Analysts point out that options prices reflect the market's collective expectations for the future path. The pricing of options with high strike prices indicates that despite SpaceX's strong growth narrative, becoming the world's most valuable company is still viewed as a highly uncertain, long-term event. (CNBC)