Delphi Digital: Only About 12% of New Tokens Listed on CEXs Since January Last Year Are Above Issuance Price, Market Depth Imbalanced

Odaily reported that Delphi Digital released the "Token Market Status Report," pointing out that the token market performance in this cycle has been suppressed by multiple structural issues, including internal token unlocks occurring on a fixed schedule regardless of project performance, protocol revenues failing to effectively flow back to token holders, and airdrops gradually evolving into sources of exit liquidity.

The report shows that since January 2025, for all newly listed tokens on major centralized exchanges (CEX), if purchased on the listing day and held until now, an average of $1,000 would be worth only about $500; the median decline is 82%, with only about 12% of tokens still above their issuance price, reflecting a market structure issue where “listing quantity is prioritized over quality.”

In terms of token economic design, the study points out that among over 400 unlock events, in 33 samples, 28 tokens significantly underperformed Bitcoin in the three weeks before and after the unlock, causing an average excess return loss of approximately 7%. Moreover, most unlocks occur within 30 days, making it difficult for the market to effectively absorb the supply shock.

The report also notes that the long-standing industry issue of “lack of value distribution” is changing, with an increasing number of protocols beginning to implement a “Fee Switch” mechanism to return revenues to token holders. For example, Hyperliquid uses almost all of its fees for buybacks; Uniswap burned 100 million UNI; Jupiter allocates 50% of its fees for buybacks locked for three years; and Aave also passed a DAO-approved buyback plan of $1 million per week.

However, the report emphasizes that fee-based buybacks alone are insufficient to address supply pressure. For instance, the scale of buybacks for some projects still cannot offset the selling pressure from token unlocks, resulting in buybacks merely offsetting inflation without creating net buying demand.

Meanwhile, institutional capital structures are changing. Institutional holdings in Bitcoin-related ETFs like IBIT grew 62% year-over-year, with advisory channels increasing by 204% and sovereign wealth funds and endowments rising by 228%, while arbitrage-focused hedge funds continue to exit. Long-term capital, including BlackRock, Morgan Stanley, and Mubadala Investment Company, is increasing its allocation.

The report concludes that the next phase of more attractive token assets will simultaneously possess “revenue distribution mechanisms” and “supply release structures linked to protocol performance,” while the current market remains in the early stages of structural repair.