Analysis: Bitcoin oscillates between regulatory tailwinds and rising yields, with continued ETF outflows pressuring prices

Odaily Planet Daily News The price of Bitcoin is hovering around $80,350, up only 0.8% in the short term, and remains under pressure after multiple failed attempts to break through the $82,000 resistance level. This range is considered a confluence of resistance from the ETF cost basis, the 200-day moving average, and the CME gap fill area.

Although the US CLARITY Act has passed the Senate Banking Committee, bringing positive expectations for crypto regulation, institutional funds continue to exit. Data shows that the 7-day average net outflow for US spot Bitcoin ETFs has fallen to -$88 million/day, the largest outflow since mid-February. Analysts believe this selling pressure is more about "profit-taking" than panic selling.

On the macro front, rising US Treasury yields have become a core source of pressure. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note rose to approximately 4.52%, an 11-month high. Meanwhile, the April CPI increased 3.8% year-over-year, the highest level in three years, further delaying market expectations for a Fed rate cut. Analysts point out that geopolitical conflicts are pushing up energy prices, exacerbating inflationary pressures, and thereby diminishing the appeal of risk assets.

Regarding institutional perspectives, some analysts believe the current ETF outflows are due to portfolio rebalancing rather than a structural retreat. Options markets indicate that Bitcoin faces significant resistance in the $82,000–$84,000 range, while $77,000 serves as a key support level. If the price breaks below this range without leverage cooling down, the market could enter a deleveraging phase, amplifying downside risks. (Decrypt)