Prediction Market Trading Volume Exceeds $25 Billion in March, Retail Investors Drive Growth, Crypto Becomes Main Entry Point

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Data shows that in March 2026, the total trading volume of prediction markets reached $25.7 billion, a month-over-month increase of 10.6%. Trading activity was highly concentrated among small retail investors. Among the 1.29 million wallets tracked in Q1, 82.3% of users had a trading volume of less than $10,000. Growth was primarily driven by micro, light, and moderately active user groups, with the market showing a structural characteristic of "high-frequency participation, low per-transaction size."

Crypto assets are the main entry point for prediction markets, accounting for 39.6% of micro-user activity. Among these, Bitcoin-related event contracts attracted approximately 593,000 users in Q1, with a trading volume of $5.42 billion, making it the most participated crypto prediction market. Ethereum and Solana recorded trading volumes of $1.19 billion and $420 million, respectively.

By category, sports markets ranked first with a trading volume of $10.1 billion, followed by political markets ($5 billion), of which geopolitical themes accounted for $2.41 billion. The overall trading volume of crypto-related markets reached $7.3 billion.

Analysis suggests that the growth of prediction markets is primarily driven by "category expansion" rather than an increase in per-transaction size. Micro users were active for an average of 2.5 days, participating in 1.45 categories, while medium users showed increased activity to 9.9 days, engaging in 2.34 categories, indicating a shift from single-speculation to sustained participation across multiple markets. (The Block)