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Due to ambiguous settlement rules, Polymarket's "DeepSeek V4 Released on April 24" faces contentious ruling

2026-04-24 06:49

Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that today DeepSeek officially announced the release of a preview version of DeepSeek-V4. However, on Polymarket, the specific release time of DeepSeek V4 has been caught in three rounds of UMA dispute rulings.

The reason lies in the settlement rules of this event, which state that only versions representing the evolution of DeepSeek's core V-series and explicitly positioned as the successor to DeepSeek-V3 qualify. Other models, such as derivative models (e.g., "V4-Lite," "V4-Mini"), task-specific models, R-series reasoning models, and experimental or preview versions (e.g., "V4-Exp," "V4-Preview"), are not eligible if they are not positioned as the new V-series flagship model.

Therefore, some opponents argue that what DeepSeek officially released today is the V4-Preview version, not the official V4, and that "DeepSeek V4 was released on April 24" should not be settled as Yes, but rather as No.

Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before pricing.