CLARITY Act ผ่านไปแล้ว จะเกิดอะไรขึ้นกับตลาดคริปโต?

Overview

On May 14, 2026, the U.S. Senate Banking Committee advanced the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY Act) with a bipartisan vote of 15 to 9. This vote marks the most substantive legislative push to address the "regulatory vacuum" surrounding cryptocurrencies in the United States in over a decade.

The core logic of the bill is simple yet profound: to end the long-standing jurisdictional battle between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) over digital assets, establishing a unified federal legal framework. If ultimately signed into law, the regulatory status of major assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP would be elevated from "administrative interpretation" to "federal statute," making it impossible for any future administration to overturn with a mere memo.

This article provides an in-depth analysis of the CLARITY Act's core provisions, breaking down its specific impacts on BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, and the stablecoin market, while presenting market projections under three different passage scenarios.

Key Takeaways

The CLARITY Act passed the House of Representatives by a vote of 294 to 134 in July 2025, and was advanced by the Senate Banking Committee with a 15-9 vote on May 14, 2026;

The bill classifies all digital assets into three categories: Digital Commodities (regulated by CFTC), Investment Contract Assets (regulated by SEC), and Permitted Payment Stablecoins (primarily regulated by banking authorities);

The commodity status of Bitcoin and Ethereum will be codified into federal law, permanently eliminating the tail risk of future administrative reversal;

XRP stands to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the bill, with the shadow of the multi-year SEC lawsuit finding a permanent legal resolution;

Passive interest-generating functions of stablecoins will be restricted, but activity-based yields linked to trading and liquidity provision are protected;

A full Senate vote requires at least 60 votes, needing support from over 7 Democratic senators, with the earliest passage expected around June to July 2026;

Citi analysts directly link Bitcoin's 2026 base target price of $143,000 to the passage of the bill, anticipating an additional $15 billion in net ETF inflows.

What is the CLARITY Act?

The full name of the CLARITY Act is the "Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025" (H.R. 3633). It was introduced by House Financial Services Committee Chairman French Hill on May 29, 2025, and passed the House on July 17 of the same year with a bipartisan vote of 294 to 134.

The bill's starting point is to resolve a fundamental contradiction: the current regulatory system relies on decades-old securities laws, compounded by conflicting court rulings, resulting in severe legal uncertainty. According to Arnold & Porter's legal analysis, the CLARITY Act, together with the GENIUS Act (regulating stablecoin issuance) signed into law the same year, forms a dual-pillar system for U.S. digital asset regulation—the former focuses on market structure and asset classification, while the latter governs stablecoin issuance.

On May 14, 2026, the Senate Banking Committee voted 15-9 to advance the bill, with bipartisan support from two Democratic senators: Ruben Gallego of Arizona and Angela Alsobrooks of Maryland. The bill now moves to the full Senate for consideration.

The Three-Part Classification Framework: Redrawing the Regulatory Map

The core mechanism of the CLARITY Act is the mandatory classification of all digital assets into three legal categories. Understanding this framework is fundamental to grasping the bill's impact.

Digital Commodities

Tokens whose value derives from the actual operation of a blockchain network, such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. These assets fall under the purview of the CFTC. According to Mudrex's analysis of the bill, the legislation establishes a decentralization test based on token distribution, governance structure, and protocol control to determine eligibility, which most major altcoins are expected to pass.

Investment Contract Assets

Tokens issued through a model akin to equity financing for startups—where a centralized team raises funds and promises to build a project. These assets remain under SEC jurisdiction.

Permitted Payment Stablecoins

Dollar-pegged tokens intended for actual payments and fund transfers. These are primarily supervised by banking regulators, with the SEC and CFTC retaining anti-fraud enforcement powers related to their trading on registered platforms.

According to the analytical framework from The Motley Fool, this tripartite division means that regulatory status will be determined by the substantive characteristics of the asset, not the subjective intent of the issuer. This fundamentally changes the years-long regulatory model of "defining rules through enforcement."

Post-Passage Impact: Deep Dive into Major Assets

Bitcoin (BTC): Tail Risk Cleared, Institutional Adoption Accelerates

Bitcoin's commodity status has already been de facto confirmed through years of CFTC regulatory practice and futures market operations. The direct impact of the CLARITY Act is to codify this status into federal statute. According to BTSE's analysis, the bill provides the $98.6 billion Bitcoin ETF market with permanent legislative safeguards that no administrative guidance or court ruling can replicate.

Disruption Banking, citing Citi analysts' forecasts, links the bill's passage directly to Citi's base target price of $143,000 for BTC in 2026, predicting an additional $15 billion in net ETF inflows. As of early May 2026, daily net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs had exceeded $532 million.

Notably, in the immediate market reaction to the bill's advancement, a "buy the rumor, sell the news" profit-taking behavior emerged: Crypto Times data shows that on May 18, net outflows from Bitcoin ETFs reached $649 million in a single day, with approximately $1 billion in net outflows over the previous week (May 11-15). This reflects short-term profit-taking rather than a negative judgment on the bill itself.

Ethereum (ETH): Dual Benefits from Commodity Confirmation and DeFi Developer Protection

The core benefits for Ethereum unfold on two levels.

First is regulatory identity confirmation: The bill formally designates ETH as a digital commodity, paving the way for staking-based ETH ETF products. Standard Chartered maintains its 2026 ETH price target of $7,500, while Citi had previously revised its estimate down to $3,175, directly attributing this to slow progress in CLARITY Act negotiations, indicating a direct correlation between legislative progress and ETH valuation.

Second is DeFi developer protection: According to The Motley Fool's analysis, the bill explicitly protects developers who write open-source, non-custodial software. Publishing smart contracts will no longer carry the legal risk of being deemed an unlicensed money transmitter. DeFi developers on the Ethereum and Solana ecosystems will thus gain true legal protection.

XRP: Biggest Beneficiary, SEC Shadow Permanently Lifted at the Legal Level

Disruption Banking's analysis points out that the bill codifies Judge Torres' ruling into permanent federal law, transforming the question of whether XRP is a security from something that "a future SEC interpretation could overturn" to something that "only Congress can reverse." This represents the most historically significant regulatory shift for XRP since it was sued by the SEC in December 2020.

The immediate market reaction confirms this assessment: after the Senate committee vote, XRP rose 6.5% in a single day to $1.51. The total holdings of 7 XRP spot ETFs now exceed $1.2 billion, with the structural foundation continuing to strengthen.

Solana (SOL) and Other Major Altcoins

Phemex's market analysis believes Solana fully meets the criteria for designation as a digital commodity under the decentralization test. This would clear the regulatory path for the spot SOL ETF application already filed with the SEC. Currently, the Alpenglow upgrade launched on testnet on May 11, with a mainnet launch expected in Q3, creating a synergistic effect with the legislative positive.

For other major altcoins meeting the decentralization standard, such as AVAX, ADA, and LINK, they will similarly benefit from the dissipation of SEC regulatory shadows brought on by the commodity classification. They can follow the template established by Bitcoin and Ethereum to open a compliant pathway for spot ETF applications.

Stablecoin Market: Passive Yields Restricted, Activity-Based Yields Protected

According to The Motley Fool's analysis, the bill prohibits crypto platforms from offering passive interest-like yields on stablecoin holdings, akin to bank deposits. However, it explicitly protects activity-based yields linked to trading, payments, staking, or liquidity provision.

The actual effect of this design has two potential evolutionary paths: first, capital may shift from static holdings to active on-chain participation, increasing on-chain activity density on Ethereum and Solana; second, if activity-based yields are insufficient, some yield-oriented capital might move off-chain, putting negative pressure on DeFi TVL.

Three Scenario Projections: Timeline and Market Impact of the Bill's Passage

Best Case Scenario (June-July 2026)

The full Senate vote secures over 60 votes, the bicameral reconciliation process proceeds smoothly, and the President signs the bill before July. JPMorgan analysts describe this as a "positive catalyst" for the digital asset market in H2 2026, believing passage would unlock three dimensions simultaneously: massive influx of institutional capital waiting for clear rules; accelerated spot ETF applications for altcoins like SOL, XRP, AVAX, and ADA; and a shift for traditional asset tokenization from pilot projects to scaled implementation.

Base Case Scenario (Autumn 2026)

Negotiations over the stablecoin yield issue drag through the summer, the bicameral reconciliation process concludes between September and October, and the bill becomes law before the midterm elections. The market generally maintains range-bound trading, with valuations driven by confirmation of the regulatory outlook rather than new capital inflows.

Risk Scenario (2027 or Later)

TD Cowen's banking analyst team warns that Democrats might delay the bill until after the November 2026 midterm elections. If the House of Representatives changes hands at that time, the bill's architecture could undergo significant changes in 2027. In this scenario, altcoins are expected to correct by 10% to 15%. Bitcoin, supported by its existing commodity status, would be relatively resilient, but the overall market would exhibit a narrow, range-bound pattern dominated by macroeconomic factors and lacking a regulatory catalyst.

Exclusive Insights from the MEXC Crypto Pulse Research Team

The historical significance of the CLARITY Act's Senate committee vote is not about what it resolved, but what it fundamentally changed. This marks the first time the U.S. Congress has treated digital assets, with a bipartisan majority vote, as a market requiring "legislative definition" rather than "enforcement elimination." This paradigm shift is more important than any specific clause.

From a market structure perspective, we identify three key signals worth monitoring at this stage:

First, the duration of the "sell the news" market action will be a key indicator of structural willingness from institutional capital to enter. If the bill passes the full Senate clearly with over 60 votes, and Bitcoin ETFs resume net inflows within the following two weeks, it would suggest that the preceding outflows were short-term profit-taking rather than a trend reversal.

Second, the price sensitivity of XRP and Solana to legislative progress is significantly higher than that of Bitcoin. This implies that during the window of legislative uncertainty, their volatility premium will notably exceed BTC's. Investors considering related positions should incorporate legislative timelines into their volatility management frameworks.

Third, the final form of the stablecoin yield provision will directly impact the TVL distribution landscape of DeFi protocols. If the activity-based yield mechanism is well-designed, on-chain liquidity depth on Ethereum and Solana could see a structural increase within 6 to 12 months of the bill's implementation. This is a potential upside factor not yet fully reflected in current pricing.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q1: Has the CLARITY Act passed now?

As of May 2026, the bill has not yet become law. The House passed it 294-134 in July 2025, and the Senate Banking Committee advanced it 15-9 on May 14, 2026. The bill still requires a full Senate vote (needing 60 votes), a bicameral version reconciliation, and the President's signature.

Q2: What is the actual impact of the CLARITY Act on ordinary investors?

If passed, ordinary investors will benefit on two levels: first, gaining crypto exposure through more compliant spot ETF products (including altcoin ETFs for SOL, XRP, etc.); second, as exchanges under the CFTC framework will need to meet clearer registration and disclosure requirements, investor protection standards will improve.

Q3: Why should passive stablecoin yields be banned?

Banking lobby groups argue that offering stablecoin interest yields to ordinary users directly competes with bank deposit businesses and could pose systemic financial risks. FinTech Weekly's analysis notes that Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has characterized this provision as designed to protect bank profits rather than consumers, a controversy that continues to remain unresolved.

Q4: What is the difference between the CLARITY Act and the GENIUS Act?

The GENIUS Act (signed into law in 2025) specifically governs the issuance and regulation of stablecoins. The CLARITY Act is a broader market structure bill, covering the definition of digital commodities, exchange registration requirements, the jurisdictional division between the SEC and CFTC, and protections for DeFi developers. They are designed as complementary, dual-track legislative systems.

Q5: If the bill is delayed until 2027, what will happen to the crypto market?

According to Blockchain Reporter's projection of three scenarios, if the worst case materializes, major altcoins are expected to correct 10% to 15%; Bitcoin would be relatively resilient due to its existing CFTC commodity status; the overall market would return to a macro-driven model, lacking a regulatory catalyst for support. Long/short players could consider a "long Bitcoin / short altcoins" hedging structure as a risk management tool.

Q6: Where can I trade tokens affected by the CLARITY Act?