เมื่อความไม่แน่นอนกลายเป็นบรรทัดฐาน: คู่มือการเอาชีวิตรอด "ต้านวัฏจักร" สำหรับคนทั่วไป

Original Title: how to survive what comes next (full playbook)

Original Author: @hooeem

Original Compilation: Peggy, BlockBeats

Editor's Note: Against the backdrop of accelerating AI, geopolitical conflicts, and a high-interest-rate cycle, market discussions are shifting from "how long can growth last" to a more fundamental question: What happens when a debt-based system encounters a deflationary technological shock?

Starting from a series of ongoing macro signals—such as rising sovereign debt pressure, energy price volatility, declining consumer confidence, and changes in employment structure—this article outlines a more tense scenario. On one hand, AI brings unprecedented productivity gains; on the other hand, this "efficiency dividend" could translate into demand contraction and default risks within a highly leveraged system, potentially amplifying systemic fragility. Meanwhile, the evolutionary paths of numerous asset bubbles throughout history provide a reference point for the current frenzy in AI valuations.

Within this framework, the article refocuses on the individual: when structural uncertainty becomes the norm, how should one build "counter-cyclical resilience" at the financial, professional, and cognitive levels. From cash flow defense and skill stacking to long-term asset allocation, the core is not about predicting turning points but about enhancing survival and decision-making capabilities in an uncertain environment.

The following is the original text:

We are inching step by step towards a full-blown financial crisis. It will either make you or break you.

And that depends on two things: Do you choose to ignore it, or prepare in advance?

First, let me clarify a few points:

1. I'm not a pessimist. But some of what I'll mention next might make me sound like a doomsayer. However, that's just reality itself; I'm actually viewing all this with a relatively optimistic attitude.

2. Am I an expert? Of course not. But I will put my own money where my mouth is—whether in market decisions or life choices.

I also understand that, in the short term, markets might see a relief rally or even rise (some might quote this to mock me). But I'm not talking about this week's market action; I'm talking about longer-term trends. Because I do spend time doing deep research to understand what's happening. And right now, a lot is happening, and it's not just the Iran war.

But we can start with this:

Oil, Energy, and That "Invisible Tax"

War in the Middle East, destruction of critical infrastructure, threats of further destruction, escalation while pretending to "de-escalate," plus the Strait issue—these factors will obviously push oil prices higher. Higher energy costs are essentially an "invisible tax" that ultimately passes through the entire supply chain, raising the cost of living across the board for ordinary people.

What happens next? Interest rates rise, people's financial pressure gets squeezed further, more and more people can't afford their mortgages, fail refinancing affordability assessments, and are forced onto variable rates. And this rate could be double what they were paying during the low-rate era (e.g., a 1% fixed rate locked in last December).

Yes, the situation is not optimistic at all. In such an environment, consumer spending will be significantly compressed, even gradually "suffocated."

Post content: The situation in the UK right now can be described as "completely screwed." The 10-year borrowing cost has just seen a significant upward breakout. Looking at the chart, this is a typical "bullish rates" move, but it corresponds to a series of potential severe consequences. The UK's current debt-to-GDP ratio is far higher than in 2008 (now around 95%). Both the government itself and the nation's overall fiscal situation are in a pretty dire state. More critically, the government's current borrowing cost is far higher than the level assumed in the budget less than a month ago. That Spring Budget was based on the assumption that rates would fall back to near 4%. Now, the government is forced to choose between two unfavorable options: either restart austerity (Austerity 2.0) or borrow more money to pay interest on old debt—falling into the so-called "debt trap." The result: less funding for infrastructure and public services, residents enduring high mortgage rates for longer (the 10-year rate is a key warning signal), further decline in disposable income under rising mortgage and rent pressure, and persistently high financing costs for businesses... The overall situation has comprehensively deteriorated. You can blame this crisis on Trump's policy triggers, but the more realistic situation is: it's the result of decades of mismanagement by the central government.

Oh, and right now, the US is doing its utmost to suppress this...

The core of this content is: The US is using financial means to "intervene" in the crude oil market structure. Specifically, by shorting short-term crude contracts to suppress price increases (avoiding a break above $100) while buying long-term futures for hedging, thereby "flattening the futures curve." This operation can indeed stabilize oil prices in the short term but simultaneously raises long-term oil price expectations. Meanwhile, the US is also coordinating the release of Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) and, through long-short arbitrage and "swap contracts," achieves releasing oil while getting more back in the future (releasing 1 barrel now, getting back about 1.2 barrels later). Overall, this is a strategy of "controlling prices short-term, shifting pressure long-term"—stability today might mean higher oil prices in the future.

Sovereign Debt Death Spiral

US national debt just surpassed $39 trillion. That number alone is alarming enough.

Meanwhile, annual government revenue is only about $5.4 trillion, but spending is close to $7 trillion. About 120% of fiscal revenue is consumed by Baby Boomer welfare, historical debt interest, and defense spending.

You can see these figures in real-time on @USDebtClock_org.

It's only going to get worse from here. If the government cuts spending, GDP contracts, making the "deficit-to-GDP ratio" even worse—a trap with no clean exit.

So, what have governments historically done when debt becomes mathematically unpayable? Either "print money" (create currency out of thin air) or distract with war, sometimes both simultaneously.

Across the Atlantic, your old friend the UK has already begun falling into a "vicious cycle": public sector wage increases outpacing inflation, forcing the government to raise taxes; higher taxes suppress economic growth; a weak economy then requires more "money printing." Rinse and repeat. Meanwhile, UK 30-year gilt yields have risen to their highest level since 2008, with the bond market essentially questioning the UK government's creditworthiness.

Looking globally, the narrowing spread between US 10-year Treasuries and Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs), coupled with a weakening yen, is a textbook "sovereign debt death spiral" warning signal.

AI Deflation / Bubble Threat

AI represents the fastest technological acceleration in human history, with massive productivity gains on the horizon. That sounds great until you realize the problem.

We are in a debt-based economic system. In a highly leveraged economy, large-scale "deflationary productivity gains" don't bring prosperity; they can blow up the entire system. The white-collar class is generally saddled with mortgages, car loans, and non-dischargeable student debt. AI doesn't need to replace all jobs to trigger a crisis; even a small percentage of job displacement can set off a chain reaction, eventually evolving into systemic defaults at the banking system level.

Read that sentence again. "What if AI itself is a bubble?" The other side of the coin is: AI could also be a bubble, and bubble bursts are never gentle.

History has provided similar paths:

1929: People borrowed to the limit to buy stocks and durable goods, banks lent out almost every penny; when the music stopped, there was no cushion.

2000: As long as a company name had ".com," investors poured in billions—no revenue, no plan, didn't matter, until the funding dried up.

2008: Banks gave mortgages to the unemployed, rating agencies slapped "AAA" on these toxic assets like handing out gold stars in elementary school, ultimately wiping out 20 million jobs globally.

And today? Some analysts looking at AI company valuations are starting to feel the same unease. The entire system essentially runs on a credit bubble.

Austrian School economists have warned about this for decades: either proactively pop the bubble (at the cost of a severe recession) or see the currency itself destroyed (heading towards hyperinflation).

You can only choose between the two.

Early Warning Signals

These aren't predictions; they are signals happening right now: consumer confidence has plunged to historic lows; the consumption engine is sputtering.

Abnormalities in the Treasury market, resembling signs of "capital flight" typically seen in emerging markets.

"Survival signals" in daily life are becoming more evident: people using Klarna to buy fast food and groceries in installments; a surge in military recruitment; a significant rise in graduate school enrollment (translation: can't find a job).

Pressure is also showing at the corporate level: tech companies are replacing domestic employees with overseas labor or directly with AI.

Don't believe it?

Data shows over the past 6 months, 60% of people reduced meals or portion sizes; 53% relied on credit, installments, or high-interest loans to buy food; 40.5% delayed paying bills to afford food. Overall pointing to one conclusion: many are already "barely getting by," living on the edge of collapse, and one-off subsidy policies can't fundamentally solve the problem.

In 2025, US Army recruitment hit a record high and completed its annual target 4 months early. In a macro context, this is often interpreted as: when economic opportunities shrink and the job market tightens, more people choose the military as a stable path.

The core of this content is: The US economy shows contradictory signals of "data versus lived experience." On one hand, consumer confidence has plummeted to its lowest level since 2014; on the other, GDP growth exceeded expectations. Behind this "economic paradox" is the decoupling of growth from employment and persistent anxiety from high prices—meaning macro data looks okay, but ordinary people's actual experience is worsening.

Alright, enough evidence. So what do we do? Sit there complaining about fate and sighing? Of course not.

What we need to do is first acknowledge its existence, then prepare for it, and thus survive.

How to Respond (Action Guide)

The following can be treated as an executable checklist.

We need to face it with a "glass half full" mindset. Act with a pragmatic, can-do attitude while also believing things will eventually get better. This isn't the apocalypse. Precisely because we understand this, we can dare to take risks when it's time.

Immediate Financial Defense

Build an emergency fund covering 3 to 6 months of "minimum living expenses." Apart from minimum debt payments, this takes priority over everything else. If you have no savings now, immediately save your first $1,000.

This is not optional. Don't borrow for consumption. If a large necessary expense is unavoidable, try to lock in a fixed rate now. In a downturn, variable rates will crush you.

Pay down credit card debt as quickly as possible. In an economic downturn, variable rates typically rise. Be proactive with payments; if necessary, call the bank to negotiate a lower rate—asking costs nothing, and data shows about 70% of people succeed. Alternatively, consider transferring to a 0% APR balance transfer card, but make sure you can pay it off before the rate resets.

Don't co-sign for anyone. Close to 40% of co-signers end up paying the borrower's debt. If you want to help someone, give money directly or provide a personal loan. In any case, protect your credit score. These sound basic but are crucial.

Career & Income Protection

You hate your boss? Understandable. But without a backup plan, in an environment where hiring opportunities are at a low and jobs are being replaced, impulsively quitting just because you "can't stand the boss"—good luck.

Continuously upskill, especially learning to leverage AI. Of course, other directions work too. YouTube, Udemy, Khan Academy, coding bootcamps—mostly free or very low cost. Learn to code, learn SEO, stack skills that make you harder to replace or enable you to start a side hustle.

Start a side hustle. Freelancing, online services, handmade products—anything works. On average, a side hustle can bring in about $500 per month, and that money builds a safety net while you sleep.

Investment & Wealth Strategy

Ignore media-induced panic. Economists predict a recession almost every year, and "doomscrolling" will only lead you to make emotional decisions that ruin your portfolio.

In the long run, the S&P 500 goes up—after all, it represents America's top 500 companies. If you're prepared, this phase can be a good time to add risk assets. I would do that, while also allocating to Bitcoin as much as possible at the right time, and dollar-cost averaging into it before that.

Markets always recover eventually. If you miss the market's best 10 days, you miss most of the gains. So, when the market is already down 25%–35% (using the S&P as an example) and people are telling you it will get worse, that might be the time you should take on risk.

Trust the power of time. A Schroders study covering 148 years of data shows: investing for 1 month, the probability of loss is about 40%; for 1 year, it drops to 30%; for 20 years, it's almost zero.

Think in longer timeframes. Maybe you don't have to wait 20 years, but at least think in terms of cycles. Or, you can be a "cockroach."

Do you know who this person is?

Hmm, this guy was one of the richest people in human history. When he died in 1525, he controlled almost 2% of Europe's GDP... And how he did it, simply put, was by "surviving like a cockroach."

Today, "being a cockroach" probably means: cash + commodities + stocks, balanced allocation.

Such a portfolio allows your assets to compound across different cycles. However, this is more suitable for those with larger capital; it might not make you rich quickly, but it can keep you steady.

If you have cash on hand, I personally would still consider allocating some to the riskier end of the curve, like adding to Bitcoin when it's down around 70%. Of course, that's just my view, not advice.

Remember: When everyone is panic-selling, those willing to take on risk have the chance for massive wealth returns.

Next is an often overlooked but very important investment direction—

Personal Preparation

1) Invest in Your Health

Make yourself "harder to knock down." Start investing time and effort now to improve your physical condition, aiming for the best fitness level of your life.

An illness, a surgery, or being unable to work for a short period can directly destroy your finances. Therefore, this is the "highest-return" investment you can make.

2) Asset & Tax Planning

Do tax planning, maximizing the use of tax-free accounts and pension allowances. Complete estate and inheritance arrangements before the tax year ends, especially with potential policy changes (like abolishing the 7-year tax-free rule or imposing capital gains tax on inheritances). Seek professional help if necessary.

3) Invest in Your Cognition & Knowledge

Don't be mocked for paying attention to things "outside your field." Maybe algorithms won't reward you immediately, but those who remain genuinely curious and keep learning will ultimately benefit.