Glassnode: Bitcoin enters late-stage bear market compression phase, no genuine demand signal has emerged yet

According to Odaily, Glassnode indicates that Bitcoin is currently positioned between a median realized price of approximately $63,000 and a short-term holder cost basis of around $68,700. Spot trading volume has dropped to its lowest level since 2019, with the market in an extremely quiet state of compression. Core inflation fell back to 2.5% in July and stock markets reached new highs, yet Bitcoin showed almost no reaction or even weakened, clearly signaling an absence of demand. Selling pressure is easing, with profitable supply approaching the bottom territory of past bear markets. The seller exhaustion indicator has hit cyclical lows, and the adjusted SOPR has been rejected near the breakeven line nine times.

Meanwhile, buyers remain conspicuously absent. ETF net inflows are minimal, Bitcoin continues to flow into exchanges, and derivatives leverage has already been heavily skewed long in advance, with open interest relatively high compared to volume while order book bids are thinning. Glassnode believes the key levels to watch are approximately $68,700 to the upside and around $58,500 to the downside. A decisive break above the former, accompanied by a recovery in trading volume and ETF inflows, would be necessary to confirm market improvement. If the latter is lost, accelerated downside could occur given thin buying and crowded long positioning. Glassnode states that Bitcoin is currently in the late-stage bear market compression phase, and a genuine demand signal has yet to appear.