Polymarket probability of "Effective ceasefire between US and Iran before July 31" rises to 59%, up 19% in a single day

The PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring shows that the probability of an "Effective ceasefire between the US and Iran before July 31" on Polymarket has risen to 59%, up 19% in a single day.

This event will be settled as "Yes" if the US takes no qualifying military action against Iran for 14 consecutive days before the specified deadline; otherwise, it will be settled as "No."

Qualifying military actions include only US-initiated airstrikes or surface-to-surface missile attacks that directly strike Iranian territory, including bombs, air-to-surface missiles, air-launched drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles.

Excluded actions include intercepted or destroyed munitions, surface-to-air missiles, small-scale firefights, ground operations, cyber attacks, naval bombardment, artillery attacks, and unexecuted threats or authorized actions.

If there is a dispute regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, the event will await a consensus based on official information and credible media reports; if disagreement persists after 3 full calendar days, a comprehensive judgment will be made based on all available information at that time.

Settlement basis includes official information from the US and Iranian governments and military, as well as credible media reports.

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