Polymarket: Probability of WTI Crude Oil Breaking $85/Barrel in July Rises to 75%

Monitoring by the PPP Prediction Market Tool shows that in the Polymarket "WTI Crude Oil Price Reaches Level in July" prediction event, the market estimates a 75% probability of WTI crude oil breaking $85/barrel, a 32% probability of breaking $90/barrel, and a 17% probability of breaking $95/barrel.

According to market rules, if during July trading hours, the highest price (High) of any 1-minute candlestick for the WTI front-month contract reaches or exceeds the corresponding target price, the event is deemed a "Yes." Previously, amid easing US-Iran relations and rising expectations for the resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, concerns over supply disruptions eased, and WTI crude oil prices rapidly fell from conflict highs to around $70/barrel. However, with the recent re-escalation of US-Iran tensions and renewed risks to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the market is once again pricing in the risk of supply disruptions in the Middle East, driving the rebound in oil prices.

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