Polymarket odds on "U.S. government will ban open-source AI models in 2026" temporarily at 16%

PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring shows that in the Polymarket event "Will the U.S. government ban open-source AI models in 2026?", the probability for "Yes" is temporarily at 16%.

According to the settlement rules, if the U.S. federal government, before December 31, 2026, restricts public access or use of a specific open-source AI model through legislation, executive orders, export controls, or other formal policy actions, the market outcome will be determined as "Yes." Otherwise, the outcome will be determined as "No." Eligible open-source AI models refer to general-purpose large language models or multimodal foundation models with publicly downloadable model weights and source code that can run on user-controlled hardware, such as Meta Llama, Mistral, DeepSeek, Qwen, etc.

Recently, Moonshot AI's launch of the open-source Kimi K3 model has drawn market attention to whether it could disrupt closed-source AI. OpenAI's Strategic Head, Dean W. Ball, previously stated on the X platform that the U.S. government might use soft legal measures to prevent open-source models from entering the U.S. Meanwhile, David Sacks, Chair of the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology, argued that using regulatory uncertainty to suppress open-source competition is "unacceptable."

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