Probability Drops to Historic Low – Sentiment Shifts Bearish on CLARITY Act Becoming Law in 2026

Odaily报道 Sentiment is turning bearish on bets that the CLARITY Act will be formally enacted in 2026, with the probability of the legislation passing within the year falling to a historic low. At the start of the year, market expectations for the bill peaked at 82%, but the probability has since steadily declined as negotiations have hit multiple impasses. The core disagreements hindering the bill's progress include deadlocks over ethical provisions, opposition from banking lobby groups regarding stablecoin interest-bearing clauses, and a compressed window for deliberation and voting due to a tight congressional schedule and the approaching midterm elections. While leading industry players broadly support this comprehensive digital asset regulatory bill, traders believe the multiple rifts cannot be resolved in the short term, making it highly unlikely that the bill will complete the entire legislative process and take effect within 2026.