DRAM price forecast raised: Q3 average price expected to rise 21% QoQ, higher than TrendForce's prediction

According to the latest industry research, the global DRAM market's average selling price (ASP) in the third quarter is expected to rise 21% quarter-on-quarter. This forecast is higher than TrendForce's previous predictions of a 13% to 18% increase for traditional DRAM and an 8% to 13% increase overall, including HBM.

Analysts believe that the price increase of DRAM in the third quarter is mainly driven by several factors, including a 20% to 30% QoQ increase in server DRAM prices and strong demand for high-speed LPDDR5; the spot market for DDR5 and DDR4 continues to heat up, with prices rising further in July; increased orders for HBM4; a long-term agreement (LTA) coverage ratio below 50%, leading to more spot and non-LTA orders pushing prices up; meanwhile, emergency procurement by some OEM manufacturers has also driven price increases for both DRAM and NAND by over 20%.

The market had previously been concerned that memory chip manufacturers' third-quarter performance might fall short of expectations, but the latest contract price review shows that the DRAM price increase is stronger than market consensus. At the same time, positive guidance recently released by TSMC and ASML has further strengthened the market's expectation of an upward cycle in the storage industry. (Barrons)