Polymarket "Deng Yu, Wang Hong, John Pardon, Jacob Tsimerman win Fields Medal" probabilities all rise above 98%
PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring shows that on Polymarket, the probabilities for the four events "Deng Yu wins 2026 Fields Medal," "Wang Hong wins 2026 Fields Medal," "John Pardon wins 2026 Fields Medal," and "Jacob Tsimerman wins 2026 Fields Medal" have surged over the past week, all currently reaching above 98%.
The 2026 International Congress of Mathematicians will convene in Philadelphia, USA on July 23, where several awards including the Fields Medal will be announced. Recently, some netizens claimed that by analyzing the front-end code of the ICM 2026 official website schedule, these four individuals might be the winners, but the relevant list has yet to receive official confirmation. If Deng Yu and Wang Hong ultimately win, it will mark the first time Chinese mathematicians have received the Fields Medal.
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