Standard Chartered Maintains Bitcoin Target of $100K: Strategy’s Sales Are Not a Sign of Risk Deterioration

Odaily Planet Daily News Standard Chartered has maintained its price forecast for Bitcoin to reach $100,000 by the end of 2026, stating that the recent market decline triggered by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) is not due to a deterioration of the company's balance sheet, but rather a strategic adjustment that the market has failed to fully understand.

Geoffrey Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered, noted in a report that Strategy's recent actions are disrupting short-term market expectations for Bitcoin. The market had previously accepted the narrative that the company would "never sell Bitcoin," but Strategy now appears to be shifting towards a more complex capital operations model. How clearly it can communicate this change will determine when market pressure eases.

Currently, Strategy holds 843,775 Bitcoins, representing over 4% of Bitcoin's total maximum supply of 21 million. From 2020 to mid-2025, Strategy's mNAV (Market Value / Net Asset Value of Bitcoin holdings) was consistently above 1, allowing the company to finance Bitcoin purchases by issuing stock and generate shareholder value growth. Central to this model gaining market acceptance was the "never sell Bitcoin" commitment. However, with the current mNAV approaching 1, the leverage effect of this financing model is diminishing.

Kendrick believes Strategy is transitioning from a "Bitcoin accumulation vehicle" to a "Bitcoin credit support vehicle," using its Bitcoin holdings as the credit basis for its perpetual preferred stock, STRC. Currently sized at approximately $10 billion, STRC is the largest financial instrument introduced by Strategy, offering an annualized dividend yield of 12%, paid semi-monthly in cash, and is designed to maintain a price near its $100 face value through an interest rate adjustment mechanism.

Standard Chartered stated that STRC is currently trading around $90, while Strategy holds a reserve of approximately $2.55 billion in US dollars to pay dividends, covering about 17.4 months of dividend payments.

Kendrick stated that Strategy's policy adjustment allowing for Bitcoin sales does not necessarily mean the company will consistently sell. He believes that as long as the market believes the new capital structure arrangement can stabilize STRC's price, Strategy may actually not need to sell Bitcoin. He compared this mechanism to a central bank's commitment to "take action no matter what": merely restoring market confidence might mean actual intervention never occurs. (The Block)