ETH is ushering in a "Golden July"? Institutions and supply-demand dynamics may become new catalysts, propelling Ethereum into a "new cycle"

Odaily Planet Daily News: Steven Ehrlich, Head of Research at Sharplink, posted on X platform that Ethereum (ETH) started July 2026 strongly, with a gain of approximately 11% this month. Historical data suggests that investors should pay attention to ETH's performance in July. Over the past 10 years, ETH has risen in 4 Julys, with an average gain of 43% during those months. Since 2020, July has been the strongest month for ETH's performance, with an average gain of about 27%, leading all other months.

The core advantage of ETH's July performance is not merely volatility, but the asymmetry between ups and downs: when July is bullish, the average gain is about 43%; while the average decline in bearish years is only about 5% (from 2020 to 2025). Historically, strong July performances for ETH have often been accompanied by Ethereum-specific catalysts:

July 2020: Gained 54%, marking the start of "DeFi Summer" as Compound launched the COMP token, sparking a yield farming craze. DeFi Total Value Locked (TVL) grew from about $1 billion to $4 billion within weeks, monthly DEX trading volume surged by 174%, and ETH benefited as the DeFi infrastructure.

July 2022: Gained 58%, after the timeline for The Merge upgrade was confirmed on July 14, market sentiment rebounded from the post-LUNA and 3AC crisis lows, with approximately $337 million in short positions liquidated within 3 days.

July 2025: Gained 49%. The U.S. GENIUS Act was signed, spot ETH ETFs saw a record monthly inflow of about $5.4 billion, while corporate capital accelerated ETH allocation, with a staking rate of around 30% and declining exchange balances driving supply tightness.

Historically, ETH's big bullish months are usually driven by a combination of "Ethereum-specific catalysts + supply-demand imbalance". For July 2026, Steven Ehrlich believes the current market environment presents similar opportunities:

1. Institutional infrastructure is being built. EthLabs (protocol R&D) and Ethereum Institutional were recently launched, aiming to bring institutions on-chain, with participants including Sharplink, BitMine, and Joe Lubin.

2. The Ethereum roadmap continues to upgrade. On July 4, Vitalik Buterin proposed the "Lean Ethereum" plan, aiming to simplify Ethereum's architecture, increase speed, and enhance quantum resistance over the next 3 to 4 years—an initiative whose importance is comparable to The Merge.

3. Corporate capital continues to increase ETH holdings. Digital asset reserve companies are still actively accumulating ETH. Sharplink currently holds 886,725 ETH, having purchased an additional 10,000 ETH last week, and stated its goal is to increase the amount of ETH per share.

Steven Ehrlich stated that Ethereum is entering a new phase of development, where institutional adoption, technological upgrades, and capital allocation could become key factors driving ETH's performance.