摩根士丹利：三大因素或终结美股夏季涨势

Odaily News According to Morgan Stanley's global head of fixed income research, Andrew Sheets, the bank is closely monitoring three major headwinds that could derail the stock market's summer rally, a period historically known for strong performance.

The first risk is a resurgence of the Iran conflict. Sheets stated: "The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve is at its lowest level in history. If the conflict escalates again, this could weaken its ability to respond to shocks."

The second risk is a Fed rate hike. Sheets pointed out that the expectation of the Fed maintaining interest rates unchanged until the end of the year is one of the key pillars supporting the current stock market bull run. "The risk is that this assumption could be wrong, and this error could become apparent soon. Of course, there is an argument that if the Fed is worried about inflation, it should not delay action."

The third risk is a weakening outlook for AI capital expenditure. Sheets said: "The risk is that second-quarter earnings could show a more cautious approach to spending, perhaps due to the recent poor performance of some companies that have heavily invested in AI. Given that current growth and earnings prospects are highly correlated with AI, and investors favor AI concept stocks, this scenario poses a risk." (Jin Shi)