Polymarket has launched a new market: "Will the U.S. government revoke public access to another major AI model?"

Monitoring by the PPP Prediction Market tool shows that Polymarket has launched a new market: "Will the U.S. government revoke public access to another major AI model?" The probability for this event is currently 33%.

The resolution criteria are as follows: If the U.S. federal government passes relevant legislation, issues an executive order, implements export controls, or takes any other measure that substantially restricts the U.S. public's access to a major AI model by the end of 2026, the outcome of this market will be "Yes." Otherwise, the outcome will be "No." A "qualifying action" refers to a formal measure taken by the U.S. government whose effect is equivalent to completely banning the public from accessing an AI model within the United States. Furthermore, the resolution criteria emphasize that regardless of the true purpose or nominal goal of the action; if an action effectively makes it impossible for the public to access the model within the U.S., such as prohibiting the model from being provided to foreign citizens or governments, as long as the general public cannot access the model through conventional channels within the U.S., it meets the qualifying criteria. Merely excluding access to the model from a single channel is insufficient. Removals that stem from general public access permissions and are not caused by any formal action of the U.S. government do not qualify.

A "mainstream AI model" refers to a flagship, general-purpose large language model or multimodal foundation model developed by one of the following companies: OpenAI, Anthropic, Google (including Google DeepMind), Meta, xAI, Microsoft, Amazon, Mistral AI, DeepSeek, Alibaba, ByteDance, Moonshot AI, and Zhipu AI (Z.ai). Models designed for specific tasks, or those that are outdated and used solely for research or preview purposes, do not meet this criterion.

The action can target a single model or a group of models, as long as at least one major AI model is consequently banned from public access within the United States. A temporary ban on public access to a model meets this condition. However, if an action has already been implemented or a relevant resolution has been published, but the public can still access the model before the resolution takes effect, this action does not satisfy the condition.

Information sources for this market are official information and announcements from the U.S. government and relevant AI companies. However, reliable reports may also be consulted to form a consensus.

The Odaily Seer Prophet Channel continuously monitors prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.