“白毛股神”Serenity: Semiconductor Supply Chain Bottleneck Intensifies, OSAT Firms Begin Raising Prices

Odaily Odaily reports that "白毛股神" Serenity compiled recent developments in the semiconductor industry on platform X, indicating multiple signs that the semiconductor supply chain is tightening. Citing institutional and industry sources, Serenity noted that Morgan Stanley has raised its 2026 forecast for Chinese humanoid robot shipments from 14,000 and 28,000 units at the beginning of the year to 50,000 units. Probe cards and test sockets are expected to see price increases due to rising precious metal costs and a shortage of test pin capacity. Yageo has raised prices for MLCCs, aluminum electrolytic capacitors, tantalum capacitors, polymer aluminum capacitors, film capacitors, and supercapacitors.

Additionally, Serenity stated that Meta's next-generation Vistara architecture will adopt DDR4 memory combined with a CXL expansion solution. OpenAI is reportedly making breakthroughs in inference optimization, halving inference costs and reducing GPU demand. After Samsung signed a long-term supply agreement (LTA) with a major US tech customer, MLCCs are also moving to a long-term agreement supply model.

Serenity also cited a Digitimes report stating that OSAT (packaging and testing) manufacturers have begun raising prices. Currently, memory and IC packaging and testing capacity have become significant bottlenecks in the semiconductor supply chain.