分析: Bitcoin's narrow consolidation between $59,000 and $60,000 raises concerns, increasing the possibility of a drop to $40,000

Odaily Planet Daily News Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading narrowly between $59,000 and $60,000 for the fifth consecutive day. However, analysts warn that this "calm" market trend may hide greater risks, with the key concern being that the current consolidation is occurring within a downtrend.

FxPro Chief Market Analyst Alex Kuptsikevich stated that the current price action resembles the consolidation phase from March to October 2024, when Bitcoin traded in the $55,000 to $70,000 range. However, the contexts are different. The previous consolidation occurred in a rising market, whereas the current consolidation is below a support level, with both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages trending downward, indicating that the market remains bearish.

Kuptsikevich pointed out that if this consolidation pattern breaks to the downside instead of forming a basis for a rebound, the next significant support area for Bitcoin could be around $40,000.

On-chain data is also signaling pressure. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost indicated that long-term holders may be engaging in loss-making selling behavior. In historical cycles, this phase is typically accompanied by short-term pressure but could also present a long-term buying opportunity.

Meanwhile, market demand remains relatively weak, with active addresses and on-chain transaction activity at recent lows. Concerns are also heightened by the financial pressure facing corporate Bitcoin giant Strategy, whose preferred stock (STRC) recently fell to around $71, while its common stock dropped approximately 25% in one week, hitting a new low since February 2024.

Strategy previously stated that it might sell over $1 billion worth of its Bitcoin reserves to improve its financial situation. This is seen as a significant shift from founder Michael Saylor’s “never sell” strategy.

Additionally, a strengthening US dollar and continued capital flows into US stock AI-related assets are putting pressure on Bitcoin and other dollar-denominated risk assets. BTC is currently on track to end the second quarter with a quarterly decline of approximately 13%, while US stocks are performing strongly due to the AI investment boom. (CoinDesk)