Polymarket launches "Which terms will the US-Iran diplomatic agreement include before December 31, 2026" prediction market

The Odaily Seer Channel reports that Polymarket has launched a new prediction event: "Which terms will the US-Iran diplomatic agreement include before December 31, 2026".

Iran Reconstruction Funding: Will a non-Iran-led mechanism for Iran's reconstruction or economic development be established;

Dilution of Iran's Uranium: Will Iran be required to dilute or downgrade enriched uranium under its control;

Uranium Enrichment % Cap: Will a cap on uranium enrichment purity be set for a period exceeding one year;

≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap: Will a cap on uranium enrichment be set for over a year, limited to low enrichment levels or below;

Enriched Uranium Surrender: Will Iran be required to transfer part or all of its enriched uranium to non-Iranian entities;

1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium: Will a comprehensive suspension of uranium enrichment activities be implemented for over one year.

According to the settlement rules, this event will be determined based on the official text of a formal written diplomatic document ultimately signed or formally adopted by both the US and Iran. Currently, US-Iran negotiations are engaging in intensive communication regarding ceasefire lines, asset unfreezing, and transit rules through the Strait of Hormuz. The launch of this series of prediction events provides financial markets with an intuitive, segmented indicator for observing the long-term trajectory of geopolitical risks.

The Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before the price is set.