“White-Haired Stock Guru” Serenity: Continuous Wave Lasers Could Become Core Bottleneck for AI Optical Interconnects, Related Targets Hold Strategic Value

Odaily Planet Daily reports that “White-Haired Stock Guru” Serenity posted on platform X, stating that he believes the “photonics theme + continuous wave (CW) laser bottleneck” is one of the most important investment directions in the current AI infrastructure sector.

Serenity pointed out that the market seems to have overlooked the process by which Lumentum’s (LITE) market cap has grown from approximately $30 billion to over $65 billion since 2024. The core reason behind this lies in the supply bottleneck of EML lasers driven by Nvidia and the transformation of optical network architecture.

He believes the current market is experiencing a similar dynamic, meaning that continuous wave lasers, 1.6T optical modules, and CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) architecture have become the focus of the new wave of industrial upgrades. As Nvidia continues to sign long-term supply agreements, AMD and other cloud service providers are competing for supply chain resources for continuous wave lasers and optical components.

Serenity cited Goldman Sachs research, stating that the total addressable market (TAM) for the optical communications market is expected to grow to $154 billion by 2028, while the CPO market size is projected to grow from near zero to $91 billion within the next two and a half years.

He stated that companies including Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI), SIVE, and other continuous wave laser-related enterprises all hold strategic value, and believes the market may once again see investment opportunities arising from the tight supply of EML lasers. He is currently focusing on related targets in the continuous wave laser supply chain, including SOI, Tower Semiconductor (TSEM), and SIVE.