Polymarket 的“霍尔木兹海峡于6月30日前恢复正常”概率降至9%，24小时下跌9%

Odaily Seer Prophet Channel monitoring shows that the probability of "Strait of Hormuz returning to normal by June 30" on Polymarket has dropped to 9%, a 24-hour decline of 9%. As of now, the total trading volume for this event has exceeded $28 million.

As Hezbollah and Israel continue fierce exchanges of fire in southern Lebanon, Iran has publicly expressed distrust of the United States and is preparing for two scenarios. Ebrahim Rezaei, spokesperson for the National Security and Foreign Policy Committee of the Iranian Parliament, stated that the issue of a ceasefire in Lebanon is a red line for Iran, and Iran will not make concessions on related matters. Rezaei emphasized that Iran and the US are currently in a state of hostility, and Iran is preparing for a possible another war. "We don't trust what the Americans say and act based on our own calculations," he said, adding that Iran is also pursuing negotiation and diplomatic options and will continue talks with the US.

Odaily Seer Prophet Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before prices are set.