瑞银：油价下跌将缓解美联储加息压力

Odaily reported that Leslie Falconio, who currently serves as Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy at UBS Global Wealth Management, stated that after the U.S. and Iran claimed to have reached an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which suppressed oil prices and triggered a rally in the U.S. Treasury market, the pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this year is easing.

Leslie Falconio pointed out that even before the ceasefire, as oil prices fell, "the two-year yield was still rising because the market was pricing in nearly a 100% probability of a rate hike in December 2026." "Now what's happening is that oil prices are falling, but the market is stripping out these rate hike expectations. That's why the two-year yield is declining."

New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will chair his first rate decision meeting this week. With accelerating inflation driven by surging crude oil prices, voices within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) supporting a rate hike this year are growing louder. Leslie Falconio expects the FOMC to formally drop its easing bias at this week's meeting, paving the way for a more hawkish outlook. However, she stated that she still expects the next move to be a rate cut, likely in 2027. (Bloomberg)