Wintermute: BTC's Drop Below $62,000 Not Due to Strategy's BTC Sale, Real Selling Pressure Comes from US Institutions

Odaily Odaily reports that market maker Wintermute published a weekly market analysis report stating that Bitcoin fell below $62,000 last week, recording a weekly decline of approximately 14%, hitting its lowest level since September 2024. Wintermute believes that although Strategy founder Michael Saylor disclosed the sale of 32 BTC, which attracted market attention, the scale of this transaction was negligible. The real reason for the market weakness is the continuous reduction of positions by US institutional investors and the outflow of funds from spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Wintermute pointed out that the US added 172,000 non-farm jobs in May, far exceeding the market expectation of approximately 80,000. Meanwhile, job vacancies rose to their highest level in nearly two years, and the services price index reached its highest point since August 2022. Strong economic data weakened market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, pushing the 10-year US Treasury yield to 4.55%, creating a "good news is bad news" macro environment that puts pressure on risk assets.

At the same time, the rally in AI concept stocks showed signs of weakening, with the Nasdaq index falling 4.7% for the week. The S&P 500 index recorded its first weekly decline since March. Wintermute believes that the correction in the AI sector, rising yields, and the upcoming SpaceX IPO have collectively dampened market risk appetite.

In the crypto market, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows for 10 consecutive trading days as of May 30, with cumulative outflows totaling approximately $2.97 billion. The net outflow in May reached $2.43 billion, marking the worst monthly performance since 2026. Wintermute OTC data shows that retail funds continue to flow into US stocks, while US institutional investors have recently turned bearish and are leading the sell-off.

However, Wintermute believes there are also positive signals in the market, including long-term capital gradually building positions at current price levels. From a perspective of more than one year, Bitcoin's risk-reward ratio is becoming increasingly attractive. The report points out that the SpaceX IPO on June 12 will be an important barometer for observing market risk appetite. If the issuance is smoothly absorbed, it could help boost market sentiment; conversely, it may exacerbate pressure on risk assets.