SpaceX Pre-IPO Arbitrage Review: A 10% Spread Still Existed Yesterday

Odaily reported that ahead of the SpaceX IPO, the SPCX pre-market perpetual contract listed on multiple CEXs and on-chain Perp DEXs presented arbitrage opportunities due to differences in share calculation and rebase mechanisms, which several KOLs capitalized on. Crypto KOL Silicon Bird | Ray shared: "Last night, I went long on Binance and short on Hyperliquid, still capturing a 10% arbitrage spread. Binance issued a rebase announcement last night. Because the previously estimated share count (11.87B) differed from the actual share count (13.08B), SPCXUSDT positions will be converted at a ratio of 1.1. This means the SPCX price on Binance will be divided by 1.1, while the position size will be multiplied by 1.1. This created a massive arbitrage opportunity because the SPCX contract on Hyperliquid was also initially launched based on an 11.87B share count. However, the documentation clearly states that Hyperliquid's SPCX will not rebase (as an HIP-3 DEX, trade.xyz also lacks the capability to rebase). The SPCX on Hyperliquid currently tracks the Class A common stock price. I submitted a ticket to trade.xyz and received a clear response confirming there would be no rebase." Additionally, he analyzed the reasons why "SPCX on trade.xyz will not rebase," stating: "There are several main reasons. Those familiar with Hyperliquid and trade.xyz know the relationship between the two: the former is a trading-specific L1 blockchain, and the latter is a DEX based on Hyperliquid's HIP-3. trade.xyz is somewhat like an outsourced team, essentially just setting up a venue within Hyperliquid's ecosystem.

1. We need to understand that a rebase is a very complex operation, involving suspending trading, forced liquidations, and reopening positions. This is a major engineering task even for large CEXs (like OKX and Binance, which are executing this rebase). Smaller exchanges like Bitget have abandoned the effort entirely and opted to relist. For an on-chain team dependent on another blockchain, it is an even more daunting challenge.

2. When trade.xyz first launched its contract, it mentioned an estimated share count of 11.87B. However, realizing this could be controversial, they quickly removed any reference to the estimated share count from their documentation. They explicitly emphasized that the price tracked by SPCX on trade.xyz is simply the Class A common stock price of SPCX, and added numerous disclaimers stressing that no rebase would occur."

Crypto KOL KyleChen also posted last night, stating: "The optimal hedging strategy should be on the OKX pre-market perpetual. With an IPO subscription cost of $142, there is still approximately 14% profit margin. A comparison of three pre-market venues—

- OKX Pre-SpacX: $162, essentially confirmed as the per-share price

- Binance: Current price $167, announced a rebase on June 10th with a coefficient of 1.1, adjusted price around $151.2

- Hyperliquid: $168, its pre-market contract is serviced by trade.xyz based on HIP-3. From a technical infrastructure standpoint, the contract does not directly support a rebase. The corresponding share count is 11.87 billion shares, which differs significantly from the actual issued shares of 13.08 billion. It is highly likely that the old contract will be settled at some point, and a new contract at the per-share price will be listed." Finally, in a post today, he noted, "The premium and discount of SPCX across different platforms represent the market's pricing of rules and probabilities."

It is worth noting that this arbitrage spread has now narrowed to approximately 3%. The practical trading window has closed. The above content is solely for sharing ideas and does not constitute investment advice.