Arthur Hayes: Rising oil prices, AI-related IPOs and Trump’s anti-AI rhetoric may burst the AI bubble and drag down the crypto market

Odaily Planet Daily News, June 9th BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes said in his latest article "Reality Test" that if oil prices continue to rise due to the US-Iran conflict, it could trigger a burst of the AI stock bubble and drag down the entire crypto market.

Hayes stated that if traffic restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz persist into the second quarter, spot prices for hydrocarbons and other key commodities could rise in the third quarter. If oil prices continue to climb and inflationary pressures impact the US midterm elections, Trump might pivot to a tough stance on data center construction, AI regulation, and taxation. Hayes believes the market may anticipate that Trump will limit AI capital expenditure and tax AI companies, thus triggering a burst of the AI stock bubble.

Hayes also noted that since November 2022, AI-related debt issuance has totaled approximately $1.5 trillion, while the US M2 money supply has also increased by about $1.5 trillion over the same period. He believes the three factors that could burst the AI bubble are rising energy costs, the market's inability to absorb the three major AI-related IPOs from SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI, and Trump turning against AI. Regarding his portfolio, Hayes said Maelstrom’s equity portfolio holds significant positions in US-listed energy producers; he has sold AI-related stocks, liquidated non-core crypto assets, and offloaded HYPE, NEAR, and WLD last week, while also selling ZEC due to the Orchard Pool vulnerability. He still holds Bitcoin and ETH and plans to execute tactical short trades through derivatives.