Opinion: The $70,000 Level is a Watershed for the Current Bitcoin Options Market

Adam, a macro researcher at Greeks.live, posted on X that today the Deribit BTC index hit a low of $70,992, with the price approaching the key $70,000 mark. This level is not only a psychological threshold but also a dense area for options open interest.

Options data shows that the near-term ATM IV is around 30%, and volatility has not seen an extreme panic surge. The market is currently not pricing in a one-way decline, but rather seems to be waiting for a directional choice. Before last month's expiration, $72,000 was the GEX dense zone, and after expiration, the $70,000 strike price has become the dense GEX zone, with a clear concentration of positions. The IV for put options below this level is significantly more expensive, and the Skew is trending downwards, indicating the market is paying a higher premium for downside tail risk. The call option wall above is concentrated at $80,000, $90,000, and $100,000, with bullish positions on the far end still quite thick. The medium-to-long term bullish structure remains intact, but in the short term, the $70,000 level must be defended first. If $70,000 is effectively defended, we may see a short-term IV pullback and spot price recovery; if it breaks down with high volume, demand for protective put options could push short-end IV higher, and the price may continue to test the $68,000 to $65,000 range.