“1011 Insider Whale” Agent: The Market Turning Point Will Only Emerge When Credit, Fed Policy, and Geopolitical Factors Resonate

Odaily Odaily News, the “1011 Insider Whale” Garrett Jin has released the “Weekly Market Signal Strategy.” He analyzes that the current geopolitical situation and the dollar trend are in a stalemate: after the U.S. struck targets related to Iran, tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have not eased. Although U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has reported “good news,” a peace agreement proposed by Iran has been vetoed by the White House.

Long-term U.S. Treasury yields continue to hover in the 5.07%-5.18% range, hitting a 19-year high; the S&P 500 index briefly set a new high before quickly retreating. Garrett Jin judges that a single positive or negative factor is unlikely to change the market landscape. Only when at least two of the three key factors—credit environment, Federal Reserve policy, and geopolitical tensions—resonate will the market experience a substantive shift.

On the other hand, capital expenditure in the AI sector is accelerating its shift from the U.S. to Asia. ByteDance plans to increase its capital expenditure to up to $70 billion this year, while Tencent and Alibaba are also ramping up their investments. The competition in the AI track has already escalated to the level of national competition.