Polymarket probability of "WTI crude oil falling to $85 by May 2026" rises to 62%, up 32% in 24 hours

Odaily Seer Prophet Channel monitoring shows that the probability on Polymarket for "WTI crude oil to fall to $85 by May 2026" has risen to 62%, up 32% in 24 hours.

According to a report on the 27th by the "Balance" news agency affiliated with the Iranian judiciary, a "preliminary informal document" concerning a framework for a memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States has been disclosed, covering issues such as the Strait of Hormuz, regional military deployments, and future agreement arrangements.

According to the document, the US has committed to lifting its "maritime blockade" against Iran and withdrawing some military forces deployed in areas surrounding Iran. In exchange, Iran will gradually restore commercial vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to pre-escalation levels within one month, excluding military vessels. The management of vessel traffic and route arrangements will be coordinated jointly by Iran and Oman.

The document indicates that if Iran and the US can reach a final agreement within 60 days, the relevant content could be confirmed in the form of a binding United Nations Security Council resolution. The report stated that the Iranian side emphasized it would not take any concrete action until "practical and verifiable" inspections are completed.

Odaily Seer Prophet Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before the price is set.