策略师警告：美联储等央行加息而非降息的可能性越来越大

Odaily Planet Daily News Despite concerns about war-induced inflation, there are signs that other factors are equally influencing long-term borrowing costs. In the US, the so-called "real yield," which strips out the impact of inflation, has had a greater effect, indicating that bond investors are worried about more than just the price pressures brought by the Iran war. Other driving forces include the potential for an already enormous public debt burden to swell further, the impact of the AI investment boom, and the increasing likelihood that central banks like the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates rather than cut them.

Strategists at ING, Goldman Sachs, and Barclays all emphasize a common speculation: the recent rise in some long-term yields will not fully reverse even if the oil price spike-driven inflation subsides. This means that even if the conflict ends, market borrowing costs may remain near multi-year highs, continuing to pressure governments and economies. (Jinshi Data)