SpaceX may be rapidly included in major indices like QQQ and VTI after its IPO, with a potential Nasdaq 100 weighting of 0.47-0.7%

Odaily Planet Daily report: SpaceX is about to launch its IPO, with an expected financing scale of $50 billion to $75 billion, corresponding to a valuation of approximately $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion, potentially making it the largest IPO in history. Analysts point out that SpaceX's ultra-high valuation means it could quickly enter major indices and ETFs after listing, with passive capital allocation potentially far exceeding that of previous large-scale IPOs.

According to current rules and potential reforms:

1. Vanguard's VTI (tracking the total market) and the growth stock ETF VUG (corresponding to the CRSP index) could potentially include SpaceX within the fastest 5 trading days after its listing;

2. The Nasdaq 100 index, tracked by QQQ, could include it within the fastest 15 trading days after listing;

3. The Russell 1000 and Russell 1000 Growth indices are expected to be included earliest in September and December of this year;

4. The S&P 500 index, tracked by SPY, might be included in 2027 after a rule change.

SpaceX's weighting in the Nasdaq 100 is expected to be between 0.47% and 0.70%, higher than its share in most float-adjusted market-cap-weighted indices. According to analysis, as the lock-up period ends and more insider shareholders sell their shares, SpaceX's public float could increase in the future, thereby further raising its weight in major indices. However, SpaceX's biggest current issue is its relatively low "float." Based on the current financing structure, its proportion of publicly traded shares is estimated to be only about 2.86% to 3.75%, far below the average of over 80% for most major US large-cap tech companies. This will affect its weighting in indices that use a "float-adjusted market capitalization weighting" mechanism. (BusinessInsider)