CryptoQuant Analyst: Bitcoin Has Entered a Risk-Off Phase, ETF Demand Momentum Far Below Last Year's Peak
Odaily News CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler stated that Bitcoin has lost its structural upward momentum amid a sharp deterioration in the macro environment. This is a significant signal, indicating that the market is currently more in a "Risk-off" phase. Until its on-chain "Impulse" indicator returns above the zero line, every rebound in BTC still lacks confirmation.
He pointed out that the recently released fourth part of "Decision Architecture for Bitcoin" primarily constructs a macro framework based on the US Dollar Index (DXY), the 10-year US Treasury yield, and the VIX volatility index. The core view is: not all macro fluctuations will disrupt the on-chain structure. However, when macro factors truly enter a "dominant mode," even if on-chain data is positive, the market may temporarily lose upward momentum.
Additionally, CryptoQuant added a new dashboard for US spot Bitcoin ETFs this week, covering data such as weekly net inflows, cumulative flows, 30-day ETF Flow Momentum, changes in demand over the past four weeks, and fund distribution across various funds. Among these, the current 30-day ETF momentum is only $362.8 million. In comparison, this indicator reached a high of $13.21 billion in December 2024 and hit a low of -$5.36 billion in November 2025.
Adler emphasized that the Coinbase Premium Index remains an important metric for observing US spot demand: when this index consistently stays above zero, it means US buying is still supporting the market; if it turns negative, even if BTC rises, its trend may lack support from genuine US demand.
