QCP: After IBIT options worth over $4 billion expire, BTC drops below $80,000 support

Odaily reported that QCP Capital released its latest market report, stating that after a prolonged consolidation around the $80,000 range, BTC has broken below $78,000. The "long Gamma" effect brought by IBIT options had previously suppressed market volatility, but with over $4 billion worth of IBIT options expiring last Friday, that support has significantly weakened.

QCP points out that the current macroeconomic environment continues to deteriorate. US Treasury yields have risen to new highs for this cycle, with the US 10-year yield reaching 4.62% and the 30-year yield climbing to 5.14%. Meanwhile, the USD/JPY exchange rate has moved into the 158-159 range, approaching the key 160 level, raising market concerns about potential Japanese intervention in the forex market and the unwinding of yen carry trades.

The report believes that market sentiment remains primarily dependent on progress in trade negotiations. However, last week's meeting between Trump and Chinese leaders did not provide clear details. Additionally, with oil prices rising and US inflation remaining elevated, the market has begun pricing in the probability of a further 25-basis-point rate hike by the Federal Reserve before January next year, with the current implied probability estimated at around 50% to 60%.

QCP stated that until there is clearer progress on tariff policies or the US-Iran situation, the crypto market is likely to remain in a consolidation pattern. Although short-term volatility briefly surged during this decline, it has already started to subside. Selling call option strategies may once again push BTC prices to fluctuate within the current range.