Analysis: Bitcoin oscillates between regulatory tailwinds and rising yields, with persistent ETF outflows pressuring prices

Odaily Bitcoin price hovers around $80,350, up just 0.8% in the short term, remaining under pressure after multiple failed attempts to break through the $82,000 resistance level. This zone is seen as a confluence of the ETF cost basis, the 200-day moving average, and the CME gap fill area.

Although the U.S. CLARITY Act has passed the Senate Banking Committee, bringing positive regulatory expectations for crypto, institutional capital continues to exit. Data shows the 7-day average net outflow from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs has fallen to -$88 million per day, the largest outflow since mid-February. Analysts suggest this selling pressure is more indicative of "profit-taking" than panic selling.

On the macro front, rising U.S. Treasury yields are a key source of pressure. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note has risen to approximately 4.52%, an 11-month high, while the April CPI rose 3.8% year-over-year, the highest level in three years, further delaying market expectations for a Fed rate cut. Analysts point out that geopolitical conflicts are pushing up energy prices, exacerbating inflationary pressures and thus diminishing the appeal of risk assets.

From an institutional perspective, some analysts believe the current ETF outflows are part of portfolio rebalancing rather than a structural trend. Options markets indicate significant resistance for Bitcoin in the $82,000–$84,000 range, while $77,000 is a key support level. If the price breaks below this range without a cooling in leverage, the market may enter a deleveraging phase, amplifying downside risks. (Decrypt)