Delphi Digital Analyzes Marginal Changes in Strategy's Bitcoin Financing Model, STRC Becomes Key Expansion Engine but Risks Rise Simultaneously

Odaily Odaily News: Crypto research institution Delphi Digital has released its latest report, "How Far Can Saylor Stretch It," conducting a systematic analysis of Strategy's Bitcoin (BTC) capital expansion mechanism. It points out that its financing structure is transitioning from "low-cost accumulation" to a phase of "diminishing marginal efficiency."

The report shows that within the current asset accumulation system centered on Bitcoin, STRC has become Strategy's core financing tool for continuously purchasing BTC. In the early stages, it relied on the significant premium of MSTR's stock price (mNAV far exceeding BTC's net asset value) to create a positive cycle of "issuance equals accumulation." However, as valuations have fallen to approximately 1.24 times the enterprise value-based mNAV, the BTC-per-share accretion effect from common stock issuance has approached a breakeven point.

Meanwhile, although convertible bond instruments played a crucial role historically, they have accumulated approximately $8.2 billion in principal. They face concentrated repayment pressure after September 2027, putting long-term sustainability of the financing structure under strain.

STRC provides a continuous source of financing for Strategy by offering income-seeking investors an approximately 11.5% annualized monthly dividend, which is used to sustain the pace of BTC purchases. However, this mechanism also introduces ongoing cash flow obligations. Each round of financing not only increases BTC assets but simultaneously accumulates future dividend payment burdens.

The report emphasizes key risk scenarios: if BTC prices remain stagnant and the MSTR premium fails to recover, the "gains from STRC-financed BTC purchases" could be gradually offset by "common stock dilution and dividend obligations." Although the company's approximately $2.25 billion cash reserve can cover roughly $1 billion in redemption pressure in 2027, the larger-scale debt and dividend structures due in 2028 remain unresolved.

Additionally, STRC's current authorized issuance limit of approximately $28.3 billion has become a critical constraint node. Once the limit is reached, the capacity for new BTC purchases may slow down. However, existing dividend obligations will persist, thereby altering the overall dynamic growth path of BTC per share.