好的，这是您要求的翻译结果： Polymarket上新“特朗普访华前，美伊能否达成永久和平协议”

Odaily Seer Channel monitors that Polymarket has listed a new prediction event: "Can a permanent peace agreement be reached between the US and Iran before Trump's visit to China?" Currently, the probability of reaching a permanent peace agreement stands at 7%.

Earlier in mid-April, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated that China and the US are maintaining communication regarding Trump's visit to China, but there has been no recent progress on the matter.

The settlement rules for this event are as follows: If the US and Iran reach a permanent peace agreement before Trump's visit to China, the market will be resolved as "Yes." Otherwise, the market will be resolved as "No."

If, by 11:59 PM Eastern Time on December 31, 2026, neither a qualifying peace agreement has been reached nor has Trump's visit to China occurred, the market will be resolved as "No."

A permanent peace agreement is defined as any agreement that explicitly states that military hostilities between the US and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or an agreement that uses similar wording to explicitly state that military hostilities between the US and Iran will permanently end. Agreements explicitly designated as temporary or final agreements that do not include the permanent cessation of military hostilities between the US and Iran are not eligible.

A qualifying agreement is considered to have been reached if any of the following conditions are met:

1. The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g., a treaty or multi-clause accord) that meets the criteria outlined above.

2. Both the US and Iranian governments publicly and explicitly confirm that a qualifying agreement has been finalized. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other final statements that do not constitute a finalized qualifying agreement will not be recognized.

In this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the land or sea territory of the listed country. Whether Trump enters the country's airspace during this period is irrelevant to the final outcome.

The primary basis for determining whether a peace agreement has been reached will be official information from the US and Iranian governments, but consensus from credible reports may also be referenced; the primary source for Trump's visit to China will be official information from the US government and official information from Trump or his verified social media accounts, but the consensus of other credible reports may also be referenced.

Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before the price is set.